Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record24-20-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+10→ 1692
If they lose-14→ 1668
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
45%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.43
Takedown avg.
0.58
32%
Takedown accuracy
39%
73%
Takedown defense
81%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaMichael Johnson
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
1 (4%)
Submission
2 (8%)
9 (38%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza60%
Michael Johnson 40%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 60% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1613, a 69-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Edson Barboza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.