Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Mike Lullo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record8-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mike Lullo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+7→ 1689
If they lose-17→ 1665
Mike LulloNow 1514
If they win+35→ 1549
If they lose-13→ 1501

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
45%
Strike accuracy
36%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
56%
Strike defense
40%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.18
32%
Takedown accuracy
11%
73%
Takedown defense
0%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.59

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaMike Lullo
15001550160016501700201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
1 (4%)
Submission
6 (75%)
9 (38%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza73%
Mike Lullo 27%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 73% favorite over Mike Lullo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1514, a 168-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Mike Lullo 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.