Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Mike Lullo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-15-0Record8-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeam

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mike Lullo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+7→ 1676
If they lose-17→ 1652
Mike LulloNow 1514
If they win+34→ 1548
If they lose-14→ 1500

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 2 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
45%
Strike accuracy
36%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
56%
Strike defense
40%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.18
32%
Takedown accuracy
11%
73%
Takedown defense
0%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.59

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaMike Lullo
150015501600165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
1 (13%)
1 (4%)
Submission
6 (75%)
9 (38%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza76%
Mike Lullo 24%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 76% favorite over Mike Lullo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1514, a 155-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Mike Lullo 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.