Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record17-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+9→ 1691
If they lose-15→ 1667
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+20→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1589

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
45%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.43
Takedown avg.
2.49
32%
Takedown accuracy
37%
73%
Takedown defense
11%
0.08
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaRafaello Oliveira
16001650170020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
1 (4%)
Submission
5 (33%)
9 (38%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza70%
Rafaello Oliveira 30%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 70% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1601, a 81-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.