Edson Barboza vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-15-0Record25-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach76"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
If they win+12→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1745 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza56%
Tony Ferguson 44%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 56% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1658), separated by just 11 points.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.