Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Machavane vs Phil Caracappa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Creonte BJJ GymTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edson MachavaneNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Phil CaracappaNow 1596
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.93
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.07
TBD
Strike defense
29%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
8%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Edson MachavanePhil Caracappa
1550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
3 (43%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (29%)
Decision
9 (82%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Machavane60%
Phil Caracappa 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Machavane a 60% favorite over Phil Caracappa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1596), separated by just 0 points.

Edson Machavane enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edson Machavane finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Phil Caracappa 18%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.