Edson Machavane vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
-Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Creonte BJJ GymTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
If they win+24→ 1618
If they lose-24→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson MachavaneTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Machavane59%
Tony Kelley 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Machavane a 59% favorite over Tony Kelley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1594), separated by just 2 points.
Edson Machavane enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Edson Machavane finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.