Combat Edge Intelligence

Edwin Figueroa vs Michael McDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach70,0"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Mohler MMATeamLast Stand Fight Team

What's at stake

Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Edwin Figueroa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edwin FigueroaNow 1551
If they win+24→ 1575
If they lose-8→ 1543
Michael McDonaldNow 1735
If they win+8→ 1743
If they lose-24→ 1711

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
39%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.76
52%
Strike defense
57%
0.20
Takedown avg.
1.09
100%
Takedown accuracy
67%
37%
Takedown defense
52%
0.60
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Edwin FigueroaMichael McDonald
1550160016501700175020142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

6 (67%)
KO/TKO
10 (53%)
2 (22%)
Submission
6 (32%)
1 (11%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael McDonald84%
Edwin Figueroa 16%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 84% favorite over Edwin Figueroa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1551, a 184-point edge.

Edwin Figueroa enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Edwin Figueroa finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.