Combat Edge Intelligence

Elias Silvério vs Jason MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-13-1Record25-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'2"
73"ReachTBD
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elias Silverio TeamTeamPure Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elias SilvérioNow 1589
If they win+12→ 1601
If they lose-12→ 1577
Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+12→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.55
TBD
Strike accuracy
53%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.70
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
16%
TBD
Takedown defense
35%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.97

Trajectory

Elias SilvérioJason MacDonald
160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (18%)
KO/TKO
3 (12%)
3 (14%)
Submission
19 (76%)
15 (68%)
Decision
3 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Elias Silvério70%
Jason MacDonald 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Elias Silvério a 70% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1589 vs 1587), separated by just 2 points.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Elias Silvério finishes 32% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.