Combat Edge Intelligence

Elizeu Zaleski vs Keita Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-1Record36-12-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
CM SystemTeamUnited Gym Tokyo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elizeu ZaleskiNow 1699
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-12→ 1687
Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.26
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
42%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.20
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.75
Takedown avg.
1.65
21%
Takedown accuracy
49%
69%
Takedown defense
64%
0.45
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Elizeu ZaleskiKeita Nakamura
1700175020242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
9 (25%)
3 (12%)
Submission
16 (44%)
7 (28%)
Decision
11 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Elizeu Zaleski67%
Keita Nakamura 33%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Elizeu Zaleski a 67% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1693), separated by just 6 points.

Elizeu Zaleski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Elizeu Zaleski finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.