Combat Edge Intelligence

Elizeu Zaleski vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-1Record21-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"Reach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
CM SystemTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elizeu ZaleskiNow 1699
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-12→ 1687
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1688

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.26
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
42%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
56%
Strike defense
63%
0.75
Takedown avg.
3.05
21%
Takedown accuracy
42%
69%
Takedown defense
83%
0.45
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Elizeu ZaleskiRoan Carneiro
1700175020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
3 (12%)
Submission
9 (43%)
7 (28%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Elizeu Zaleski60%
Roan Carneiro 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Elizeu Zaleski a 60% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roan Carneiro's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1700), separated by just 1 points.

Elizeu Zaleski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Elizeu Zaleski finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.