Combat Edge Intelligence

Elmar Gasanov vs Jake O'Brien

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-2-0Record15-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
SpartaTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Elmar GasanovNow 1694
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Jake O'BrienNow 1692
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.32
TBD
Strike accuracy
32%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.93
TBD
Strike defense
69%
TBD
Takedown avg.
6.44
TBD
Takedown accuracy
57%
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.21

Trajectory

Elmar GasanovJake O'Brien
165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
1 (8%)
Submission
3 (20%)
8 (67%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Elmar Gasanov70%
Jake O'Brien 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Elmar Gasanov a 70% favorite over Jake O'Brien in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1692), separated by just 2 points.

Jake O'Brien enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Elmar Gasanov finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Jake O'Brien 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.