Combat Edge Intelligence

Enrique Marin vs Sage Northcutt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-7-0Record12-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74,0"Reach71,5"
159 lbsWeight170 lbs
Sutemi MMATeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Sage Northcutt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Enrique Marin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Enrique MarinNow 1599
If they win+19→ 1618
If they lose-13→ 1586
Sage NorthcuttNow 1664
If they win+13→ 1677
If they lose-19→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.43
Sig. strikes / min
3.58
33%
Strike accuracy
52%
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.96
51%
Strike defense
59%
2.50
Takedown avg.
1.81
38%
Takedown accuracy
35%
60%
Takedown defense
42%
1
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Enrique MarinSage Northcutt
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (21%)
KO/TKO
5 (42%)
5 (36%)
Submission
4 (33%)
6 (43%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Sage Northcutt78%
Enrique Marin 22%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 78% favorite over Enrique Marin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Sage Northcutt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1599, a 65-point edge.

Enrique Marin finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.

Enrique Marin carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.