Eric Esch vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-1Record2-0-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
378 lbsWeight273 lbs
Team ButterbeanTeamBattle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Mac Papalii is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Eric Esch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1541
If they lose-15→ 1509
If they win+22→ 1577
If they lose-26→ 1529
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eric EschMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii61%
Eric Esch 39%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 61% favorite over Eric Esch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Mac Papalii holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1524, a 31-point edge.
Eric Esch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Eric Esch finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.