Combat Edge Intelligence

Eric McConico vs Joseph Holmes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-1Record8-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
77"Reach 80"
185 lbsWeight189 lbs
MMA LabTeamWAR Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Eric McConicoNow 1615
If they win+16→ 1631
If they lose-16→ 1599
Joseph HolmesNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
2.88
47%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
46%
Strike defense
55%
0.64
Takedown avg.
1.49
0%
Takedown accuracy
40%
69%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Eric McConicoJoseph Holmes
155016001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
3 (27%)
Submission
6 (75%)
4 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Eric McConico72%
Joseph Holmes 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Eric McConico a 72% favorite over Joseph Holmes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1614), separated by just 1 points.

Joseph Holmes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Eric McConico finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Holmes 100%.

Joseph Holmes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.