Combat Edge Intelligence

Eric Schafer vs Rob MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rob MacDonald
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Rob MacDonald

“Bobby Maximus”

5-4-0HeavyweightTUF

1542Average

Tale of the tape

14-8-2Record5-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight230 lbs
Red Schafer MMATeamFranco Behring

What's at stake

Eric Schafer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Rob MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Eric SchaferNow 1623
If they win+12→ 1635
If they lose-20→ 1603
Rob MacDonaldNow 1542
If they win+29→ 1571
If they lose-19→ 1523

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.89
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
34%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.04
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.81
Takedown avg.
7.19
36%
Takedown accuracy
80%
50%
Takedown defense
80%
1.81
Submission avg.
5.39

Trajectory

Eric SchaferRob MacDonald
1550160016502007200820092010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
3 (75%)
8 (62%)
Submission
1 (25%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Eric Schafer61%
Rob MacDonald 39%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Eric Schafer a 61% favorite over Rob MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Eric Schafer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1623 to 1542, a 81-point edge.

Rob MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Eric Schafer finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rob MacDonald 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.