Combat Edge Intelligence

Eric Schafer vs Ryan Bader

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ryan Bader
us

Ryan Bader

“Darth”

31-8-0HeavyweightPFL

1826Great

Tale of the tape

14-8-2Record31-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach74,0"
185 lbsWeight232 lbs
Red Schafer MMATeamPower MMA Team

What's at stake

Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Eric Schafer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Eric SchaferNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-8→ 1615
Ryan BaderNow 1826
If they win+6→ 1832
If they lose-18→ 1808

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1748 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.82
34%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.38
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.39
57%
Strike defense
72%
1.81
Takedown avg.
3.37
36%
Takedown accuracy
44%
50%
Takedown defense
81%
1.81
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Eric SchaferRyan Bader
17001800201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
13 (42%)
8 (62%)
Submission
3 (10%)
1 (8%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Bader83%
Eric Schafer 17%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 83% favorite over Eric Schafer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1826 to 1623, a 203-point edge.

Eric Schafer finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.