Eric Spicely vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-9-0Record22-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
73,0"Reach 76"
185 lbsWeight241 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Eric Spicely carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1559
If they lose-10→ 1527
If they win+7→ 1681
If they lose-17→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eric SpicelyThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos79%
Eric Spicely 21%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 79% favorite over Eric Spicely in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1537, a 137-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Eric Spicely finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Thiago Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.