Erick Gonzalez vs Terrance McKinney
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-8-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
75"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight ScienceTeamWarrior Camp
What's at stake
Terrance McKinney is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Erick Gonzalez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1596
If they lose-12→ 1564
If they win+9→ 1670
If they lose-15→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erick GonzalezTerrance McKinney
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Terrance McKinney92%
Erick Gonzalez 8%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 92% favorite over Erick Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Terrance McKinney holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1576, a 85-point edge.
Erick Gonzalez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Erick Gonzalez finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.
Erick Gonzalez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.