Combat Edge Intelligence

Erick Maia vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Labareda TeamTeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erick MaiaNow 1603
If they win+16→ 1619
If they lose-16→ 1587
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.49
TBD
Takedown accuracy
37%
TBD
Takedown defense
11%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Erick MaiaRafaello Oliveira
1500155016001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
6 (67%)
Submission
5 (33%)
1 (11%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Erick Maia and Rafaello Oliveira within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1603 vs 1601), separated by just 2 points.

Erick Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Erick Maia finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.