Erick Silva vs Jon Fitch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record32-8-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Erick Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1581
If they lose-8→ 1549
If they win+6→ 1747
If they lose-18→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erick SilvaJon Fitch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jon Fitch63%
Erick Silva 37%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 63% favorite over Erick Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1557, a 184-point edge.
Erick Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Erick Silva finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.
Erick Silva and Jon Fitch share 1 common opponent: Paul Daley.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.