Erick Silva vs Luan Chagas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record15-3-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'11"
74"Reach75,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamGile Ribeiro Team· 1650 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Luan Chagas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Erick Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1579
If they lose-10→ 1547
If they win+10→ 1702
If they lose-22→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erick SilvaLuan Chagas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Chagas75%
Erick Silva 25%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Chagas a 75% favorite over Erick Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Luan Chagas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1557, a 135-point edge.
Erick Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Erick Silva finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Luan Chagas 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.