Erik Koch vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record36-17-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71,5"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
King Green is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Erik Koch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1659
If they lose-9→ 1635
If they win+9→ 1732
If they lose-15→ 1708
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erik KochKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
King Green92%
Erik Koch 8%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes King Green a 92% favorite over Erik Koch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
King Green holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1644, a 79-point edge.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Erik Koch finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.