Combat Edge Intelligence

Erik Koch vs Kyle Stewart

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Erik Koch
us

Erik Koch

“The Phoenix”

16-6-0LightweightUFC

1644Solid

Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71,5"Reach42,0"
155 lbsWeight185 lbs
RoufusportTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erik KochNow 1644
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Kyle StewartNow 1646
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.33
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
42%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
47%
Strike defense
43%
1.02
Takedown avg.
1.32
43%
Takedown accuracy
20%
82%
Takedown defense
60%
1.02
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Erik KochKyle Stewart
165020182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
8 (50%)
Submission
3 (20%)
4 (25%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyle Stewart56%
Erik Koch 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Stewart a 56% favorite over Erik Koch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1646), separated by just 2 points.

Erik Koch finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Stewart 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.