Erik Koch vs Rafaello Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Roufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamAMA Fight Club
What's at stake
Erik Koch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1631
If they win+18→ 1616
If they lose-14→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erik KochRafaello Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erik Koch75%
Rafaello Oliveira 25%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Erik Koch a 75% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Erik Koch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1598, a 47-point edge.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Erik Koch finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.