Combat Edge Intelligence

Erik Koch vs Shane Campbell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Erik Koch
us

Erik Koch

“The Phoenix”

16-6-0LightweightUFC

1644Solid

Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record24-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71,5"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Roufusport· 1703 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamShaolin Muay Thai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erik KochNow 1644
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Shane CampbellNow 1651
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.99
42%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.19
47%
Strike defense
55%
1.02
Takedown avg.
1.36
43%
Takedown accuracy
29%
82%
Takedown defense
82%
1.02
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Erik KochShane Campbell
1650201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (25%)
KO/TKO
9 (38%)
8 (50%)
Submission
6 (25%)
4 (25%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Campbell64%
Erik Koch 36%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Campbell a 64% favorite over Erik Koch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1644 vs 1651), separated by just 7 points.

Erik Koch finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Shane Campbell 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.