Combat Edge Intelligence

Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Erik Silva
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Erik Silva

“The King”

9-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1580Solid

Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record10-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Antonio Silva Martial ArtsTeamPellegrino Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Francis Marshall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Erik Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Erik SilvaNow 1580
If they win+19→ 1599
If they lose-13→ 1567
Francis MarshallNow 1654
If they win+13→ 1667
If they lose-19→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.07
Sig. strikes / min
3.39
70%
Strike accuracy
33%
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.03
40%
Strike defense
54%
3.76
Takedown avg.
2.86
80%
Takedown accuracy
45%
63%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Erik SilvaFrancis Marshall
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
4 (44%)
Submission
5 (50%)
2 (22%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Francis Marshall76%
Erik Silva 24%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 76% favorite over Erik Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Francis Marshall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1580, a 74-point edge.

Erik Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Erik Silva finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Francis Marshall 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.