Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record10-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Francis Marshall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Erik Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1599
If they lose-13→ 1567
If they win+13→ 1668
If they lose-19→ 1636
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erik SilvaFrancis Marshall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francis Marshall77%
Erik Silva 23%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Francis Marshall a 77% favorite over Erik Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Francis Marshall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1655 to 1580, a 75-point edge.
Erik Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Francis Marshall enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Erik Silva finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Francis Marshall 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.