Erik Silva vs Marco Novák
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record7-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erik SilvaMarco Novák
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marco Novák51%
Erik Silva 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marco Novák a 51% favorite over Erik Silva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Erik Silva's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1579), separated by just 1 points.
Erik Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Erik Silva finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marco Novák 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.