Erik Silva vs TJ Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record20-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
What's at stake
TJ Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Erik Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1597
If they lose-15→ 1565
If they win+11→ 1611
If they lose-13→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Erik SilvaTJ Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Brown60%
Erik Silva 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Brown a 60% favorite over Erik Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
TJ Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1580, a 20-point edge.
Erik Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Erik Silva finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, TJ Brown 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.