Erin Blanchfield vs Sarah Alpar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record9-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
66"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Elite MMA
What's at stake
Erin Blanchfield is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Sarah Alpar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1774
If they lose-25→ 1742
If they win+25→ 1580
If they lose-7→ 1548
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Erin BlanchfieldSarah Alpar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erin Blanchfield92%
Sarah Alpar 8%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Erin Blanchfield a 92% favorite over Sarah Alpar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Erin Blanchfield holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1767 to 1555, a 212-point edge.
Erin Blanchfield enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Sarah Alpar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Erin Blanchfield finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Sarah Alpar 44%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.