Combat Edge Intelligence

Erivan Pereira vs Jake Shields

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-3-0Record33-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
172 lbsWeight170 lbs
Five Rounds BrasilTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Erivan PereiraNow 1735
If they win+16→ 1751
If they lose-16→ 1719
Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+12→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1722

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
TBD
Strike accuracy
32%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.19
TBD
Takedown accuracy
12%
TBD
Takedown defense
36%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Erivan PereiraJake Shields
170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
3 (9%)
3 (15%)
Submission
12 (36%)
11 (55%)
Decision
18 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Erivan Pereira92%
Jake Shields 8%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Erivan Pereira a 92% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1735 vs 1734), separated by just 1 points.

Erivan Pereira enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Erivan Pereira finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.