Ernest Chavez vs Zubaira Tukhugov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record20-6-1
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'8"
TBDReach68"
146 lbsWeight158 lbs
Total MMA StudiosTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
Zubaira Tukhugov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ernest Chavez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1665
If they lose-14→ 1633
If they win+10→ 1702
If they lose-14→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernest ChavezZubaira Tukhugov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zubaira Tukhugov69%
Ernest Chavez 31%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Zubaira Tukhugov a 69% favorite over Ernest Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Zubaira Tukhugov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1647, a 45-point edge.
Ernest Chavez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ernest Chavez finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Zubaira Tukhugov 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.