Ernesta Kareckaite vs Zarah Fairn
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-1Record6-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fighters LandTeamAllstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Ernesta Kareckaite is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Zarah Fairn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1601
If they lose-29→ 1553
If they win+19→ 1524
If they lose-13→ 1492
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernesta KareckaiteZarah Fairn
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ernesta Kareckaite80%
Zarah Fairn 20%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Ernesta Kareckaite a 80% favorite over Zarah Fairn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Ernesta Kareckaite holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1582 to 1505, a 77-point edge.
Zarah Fairn enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ernesta Kareckaite finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Zarah Fairn 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.