Combat Edge Intelligence

Ernesto Rodriguez vs Jake Ellenberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record31-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73"Reach39,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ernesto RodriguezNow 1665
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649
Jake EllenbergerNow 1665
If they win+12→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1544 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
TBD
Strike accuracy
39%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.04
TBD
Takedown accuracy
48%
TBD
Takedown defense
86%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Ernesto RodriguezJake Ellenberger
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
21 (68%)
1 (9%)
Submission
4 (13%)
7 (64%)
Decision
6 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Ernesto Rodriguez73%
Jake Ellenberger 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ernesto Rodriguez a 73% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1665), separated by just 0 points.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ernesto Rodriguez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.