Ernesto Rodriguez vs Thad Jean
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record11-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'2"
73"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamFight Sports Deerfield Beach
What's at stake
Thad Jean is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ernesto Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1698
If they lose-13→ 1666
If they win+13→ 1769
If they lose-19→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ernesto RodriguezThad Jean
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thad Jean67%
Ernesto Rodriguez 33%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Thad Jean a 67% favorite over Ernesto Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Thad Jean holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1679, a 77-point edge.
Ernesto Rodriguez enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Thad Jean enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ernesto Rodriguez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Thad Jean 55%.
Thad Jean carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.