Combat Edge Intelligence

Esteban Ribovics vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-3-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
69"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

Esteban Ribovics is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Terrance McKinney carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Esteban RibovicsNow 1728
If they win+13→ 1741
If they lose-19→ 1709
Terrance McKinneyNow 1661
If they win+14→ 1675
If they lose-10→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.27
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
43%
Strike accuracy
56%
5.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
55%
Strike defense
43%
0.35
Takedown avg.
3.31
0%
Takedown accuracy
0%
66%
Takedown defense
73%
0.17
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Esteban RibovicsTerrance McKinney
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
5 (33%)
Submission
9 (50%)
3 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Esteban Ribovics61%
Terrance McKinney 39%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Esteban Ribovics a 61% favorite over Terrance McKinney in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Esteban Ribovics holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1728 to 1661, a 67-point edge.

Esteban Ribovics finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.