Estevan Payan vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-14-0Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Jeremy Stephens is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Estevan Payan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1538
If they lose-11→ 1514
If they win+11→ 1564
If they lose-13→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Estevan PayanJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens70%
Estevan Payan 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 70% favorite over Estevan Payan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jeremy Stephens holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1553 to 1525, a 28-point edge.
Estevan Payan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Estevan Payan finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.