Estevan Payan vs Ryan Keogh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-14-0Record1-1-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
148 lbsWeight145 lbs
Arizona Combat SportsTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513
If they win+24→ 1550
If they lose-24→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1471 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Estevan PayanRyan Keogh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Estevan Payan58%
Ryan Keogh 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Estevan Payan a 58% favorite over Ryan Keogh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Keogh's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1525 vs 1526), separated by just 1 points.
Estevan Payan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Estevan Payan finishes 59% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.