Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Francisco Trinaldo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record29-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamBrazilian TKO

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+15→ 1685
If they lose-9→ 1661
Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+9→ 1775
If they lose-15→ 1751

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
39%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
62%
Strike defense
61%
1.82
Takedown avg.
0.98
33%
Takedown accuracy
42%
80%
Takedown defense
60%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Evan DunhamFrancisco Trinaldo
165017001750180020182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
10 (34%)
6 (33%)
Submission
5 (17%)
9 (50%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Trinaldo67%
Evan Dunham 33%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 67% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1670, a 96-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.