Evan Dunham vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record29-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamBrazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1684
If they lose-9→ 1660
If they win+9→ 1774
If they lose-15→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Evan DunhamFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo51%
Evan Dunham 49%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 51% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1669, a 96-point edge.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.