Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Gleison Tibau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record38-19-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
1.95
39%
Strike accuracy
32%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
62%
Strike defense
63%
1.82
Takedown avg.
4.08
33%
Takedown accuracy
54%
80%
Takedown defense
92%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Evan DunhamGleison Tibau
165017002018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
4 (11%)
6 (33%)
Submission
15 (39%)
9 (50%)
Decision
19 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham54%
Gleison Tibau 46%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 54% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1675), separated by just 5 points.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Gleison Tibau 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.