Evan Dunham vs Gleison Tibau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record40-20-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
If they win+12→ 1671
If they lose-12→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Evan DunhamGleison Tibau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau66%
Evan Dunham 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 66% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Dunham's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1659), separated by just 10 points.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Gleison Tibau 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.