Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Marcus Aurelio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record22-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamElite Mixed Fighters

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcus Aurelio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-13→ 1657
Marcus AurelioNow 1649
If they win+13→ 1662
If they lose-11→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.36
39%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.59
62%
Strike defense
60%
1.82
Takedown avg.
1.16
33%
Takedown accuracy
14%
80%
Takedown defense
28%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.70

Trajectory

Evan DunhamMarcus Aurelio
165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
6 (33%)
Submission
14 (64%)
9 (50%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham60%
Marcus Aurelio 40%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 60% favorite over Marcus Aurelio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1649, a 21-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.