Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamH2O MMA

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-8→ 1662
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1794
If they win+8→ 1802
If they lose-16→ 1778

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
39%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
62%
Strike defense
56%
1.82
Takedown avg.
2.36
33%
Takedown accuracy
34%
80%
Takedown defense
71%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Evan DunhamOlivier Aubin-Mercier
1650170017501800201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
6 (33%)
Submission
8 (38%)
9 (50%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier84%
Evan Dunham 16%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 84% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1794 to 1670, a 124-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.