Evan Dunham vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record32-18-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1682
If they lose-11→ 1658
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Evan DunhamRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos72%
Evan Dunham 28%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 72% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1669, a 29-point edge.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.