Evan Dunham vs Ross Pearson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record20-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70,0"Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamCentral Coast MMA
What's at stake
Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ross Pearson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1654
If they win+15→ 1590
If they lose-9→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Evan DunhamRoss Pearson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ross Pearson55%
Evan Dunham 45%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Ross Pearson a 55% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Dunham's way (37%).
Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1575, a 94-point edge.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ross Pearson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ross Pearson 60%.
Evan Dunham and Ross Pearson share 1 common opponent: Francisco Trinaldo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.