Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record16-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamSparta Indy

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Shamar Bailey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+8→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1654
Shamar BaileyNow 1550
If they win+16→ 1566
If they lose-8→ 1542

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
1.56
39%
Strike accuracy
20%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.91
62%
Strike defense
70%
1.82
Takedown avg.
1.50
33%
Takedown accuracy
33%
80%
Takedown defense
38%
0.98
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Evan DunhamShamar Bailey
1550160016501700201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
5 (33%)
6 (33%)
Submission
3 (20%)
9 (50%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham68%
Shamar Bailey 32%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 68% favorite over Shamar Bailey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1550, a 120-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Shamar Bailey enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Shamar Bailey 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.