Evan Dunham vs TJ Grant
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamFit Plus
What's at stake
Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — TJ Grant carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-13→ 1657
If they win+17→ 1670
If they lose-15→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan DunhamTJ Grant
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Grant56%
Evan Dunham 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Grant a 56% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Dunham's way (48%).
Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1653, a 17-point edge.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, TJ Grant 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.