Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Dunham vs Tyson Griffin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-1Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'6"
70,0"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Evan Dunham is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tyson Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+9→ 1679
If they lose-15→ 1655
Tyson GriffinNow 1584
If they win+20→ 1604
If they lose-12→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
39%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
62%
Strike defense
65%
1.82
Takedown avg.
1.87
33%
Takedown accuracy
47%
80%
Takedown defense
60%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Evan DunhamTyson Griffin
160016501700201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
6 (33%)
Submission
3 (18%)
9 (50%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Evan Dunham61%
Tyson Griffin 39%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Evan Dunham a 61% favorite over Tyson Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Evan Dunham holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1584, a 86-point edge.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tyson Griffin 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.