Evan Elder vs Gauge Young
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record11-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamIgnite Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Evan Elder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Gauge Young carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1666
If they lose-17→ 1634
If they win+17→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1610
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan ElderGauge Young
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gauge Young60%
Evan Elder 40%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Gauge Young a 60% favorite over Evan Elder in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Elder's way (46%).
Evan Elder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1625, a 26-point edge.
Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Gauge Young 64%.
Evan Elder carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.