Evan Elder vs Genaro Valdéz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record10-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamEntram Gym· 1680 avg Elo · 11 rated
What's at stake
Evan Elder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Genaro Valdéz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-19→ 1632
If they win+19→ 1598
If they lose-13→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Evan ElderGenaro Valdéz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Evan Elder72%
Genaro Valdéz 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Evan Elder a 72% favorite over Genaro Valdéz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Evan Elder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1579, a 72-point edge.
Evan Elder enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Genaro Valdéz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evan Elder finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Genaro Valdéz 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.