Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Tanner vs Josh Fremd

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-8-0Record13-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'4"
TBDReach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Hard Knocks KickboxingTeamFactory X

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Evan TannerNow 1652
If they win+12→ 1664
If they lose-12→ 1640
Josh FremdNow 1649
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
2.52
59%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.23
56%
Strike defense
47%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.66
43%
Takedown accuracy
8%
25%
Takedown defense
30%
1.34
Submission avg.
1.09

Trajectory

Evan TannerJosh Fremd
16001650200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (38%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
17 (53%)
Submission
4 (31%)
3 (9%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Fremd73%
Evan Tanner 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Fremd a 73% favorite over Evan Tanner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Evan Tanner's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1649), separated by just 3 points.

Josh Fremd enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Evan Tanner finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Josh Fremd 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.