Combat Edge Intelligence

Evan Tanner vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

32-8-0Record30-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Hard Knocks KickboxingTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Evan Tanner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Evan TannerNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-8→ 1644
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+8→ 1796
If they lose-16→ 1772

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
59%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
56%
Strike defense
59%
2.55
Takedown avg.
0.65
43%
Takedown accuracy
64%
25%
Takedown defense
65%
1.34
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Evan TannerRobbie Lawler
1650170017501800200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

12 (38%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
17 (53%)
Submission
1 (3%)
3 (9%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Robbie Lawler83%
Evan Tanner 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 83% favorite over Evan Tanner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1652, a 136-point edge.

Evan Tanner finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.